A novel technique for implementing the finite element method in a shallow water equation.

We presented a novel approach to investigate the two-dimensional shallow water equation in its primitive form. Its employs the P1NC-P1 element pair to simulate various cases: standing waves, dam-break planar, and wave absorbing with embedded radiation boundary conditions. Unlike the conventional method, we approximate the free surface variable using a conformal basis P1 whereas the velocity potential is approximated using a non-conformal basis, P1NC. Thus, for each case, the weak form needs to be reformulated as well as the discrete form. The resulting scheme is a first-order ordinary differential system and solved by Crank Nicholson. The mass matrix in the momentum equation contains the multiplication between the two bases, which computed by the mass lumping. So, our method is explicit, flexible and easy to implement. Validation using standing waves demonstrated first-order accuracy, free from numerical damping and convergent to the analytical solution. Dam-break simulation result shown an agreement with ANUGA software. Our scheme's flexibility is demonstrated when it can mimic wave absorbing simulation employing embedded radiation boundary conditions. The reflection at the boundary seems small enough, thus can be neglected. All these findings have shown the robustness and capability of our scheme to predict accurate results for various shallow water flow problems.•A novel technique for solving 2D SWE in primitive form•It is explicit, flexible, easy to implement, accurate, and robust•Our approach is suitable for coastal/oceanographic simulations.

Demographic and socioeconomic factors in impacts of COVID-19 by regions in Brazil / Factores demográficos y socioeconómicos en impactos del COVID-19 por regiones en Brasil / Fatores demográficos e socioeconômicos nos impactos da COVID-19 por regiões do Brasil

Objective: assess which demographic and socioeconomic factors contribute to the different impacts of COVID-19 by regions in Brazil. Method: descriptive study with mathematic modeling (USA) were use to assess deaths and COVID-19 cases and also establish a standard relational relationship with demographic and socioeconomic factors across the country and by regions (2020 to 2023). The factors analyzed in the study: i) deaths and cases of COVID-19, ii) total population density per thousand kilometers, iii) isolation index, iv) population, v) Human Development Index - HDI, vi) population density, vii ) average water tariff, viii) urban water service tariff, ix) total water tariff, x) urban sewage service tariff referring to municipalities served with water, xi) service tariff of total sewage, referring to the municipalities served with water, xii) Gini index (income concentration level), xiii) 1st and 2nd dose of vaccine, and xiv) Gross Domestic Product. Results: the study reveals that COVID-19 cases/deaths are significantly correlated with GDP and inversely correlated with the vaccination rate. Conclusion: this study shows scientific evidence that supports the use of vaccination as a protective measure against COVID-19 mortality in Brazil.

Objetivo: avaliar os fatores demográficos e socioeconômicos que contribuem para os diferentes impactos da COVID-19 por regiões do Brasil. Método: estudo descritivo com modelo matemático (USA) foi utilizado para avaliar óbitos e casos de COVID-19 e também estabelecer uma relaçao padrão com fatores demográficos e socioeconômicos em todo o país e por regiões (2020a 2023). Os fatores analisados no estudo: i) óbitos e casos de COVID-19; ii) densidade populacional total por mil quilômetros; iii) índice de isolamento; iv) população; v) Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano; vi)densidade demográfica; vii) tarifa média de água; viii) tarifa de serviço de água urbana; ix) tarifa de água total; x) tarifa de serviço de esgoto urbano referente aos municípios atendidos com água; xi) tarifa de serviço de esgoto total referente aos municípios atendidos com água; xii) índice de Gini; xiii) 1ª e 2ª dose de vacina; e xiv) Produto Interno Bruto. Resultados: o estudo revela que casos/óbitos por COVID-19 são significativamente correlacionados com o PIB e inversamente correlacionados com a taxa de vacinação. Conclusão: este estudo mostra evidências científicas que apoiam o uso da vacinação como medida de proteção contra a mortalidade por COVID-19 no Brasil.

Temporal and spatial patterns of fire activity in three biomes of Brazil.

The trade-off between conservation of natural resources and agribusiness expansion is a constant challenge in Brazil. The fires used to promote agricultural expansion increased in the last decades. While studies linking annual fire occurrence and rainfall seasonality are common, the relationship between fires, land use, and land cover remains understudied. Here, we investigated the frequency of the fires and performed a trend analysis for monthly, seasonal, and annual fires in three different biomes: Cerrado, Pantanal, and Atlantic Forest. We used burned area and integrated models in distinct scales (interannual, intraseasonal, and monthly) using Probability Density Functions (PDFs). The best fitting was found for Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) distribution at all three biomes from the several PDFs tested. We found the most fire in the Pantanal (wetlands), followed by Cerrado (Brazilian Savanna) and Atlantic Forest (Semideciduous Forest). Our findings indicated that land use and land cover trends changed over the years. There was a strong correlation between fire and agricultural areas, with increasing trends pointing to land conversion to agricultural areas in all biomes. The high probability of fire indicates that expanding agricultural areas through the conversion of natural biomes impacts several natural ecosystems, transforming land cover and land use. This land conversion is promoting more fires each year.

Seasonal variations in daily mortality associated with exposure to particulates, in Campo Grande, Brazil / Variaciones estacionales de la mortalidad diaria asociada a la exposición a partículas, en Campo Grande, Brasil / Variações sazonais na mortalidade diária associada à exposição a partículas, em Campo Grande, Brasil

Obcjetive: to investigate short-term effects of air pollution, climate variability on respiratory morbidity and mortality from 2005 to 2020. Method: the study was carried out in the city of Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Daily counts of hospital admissions from 2005 to 2020 were analyzed in relation to daily variations in atmospheric pollutants (NO2, O3) from the Aurea satellite column, OMI sensor. Poisson regression in generalized additive models was used for analysis. The models were adjusted for the effects of temporal trend, seasonality, meteorological factorsand autocorrelation. Results: there was, in the period, an increasing trend in mortality rates and hospital admissions, with an increase in the proportion of deaths from respiratory diseases in relation to other causes. Conclusion: respiratory diseases are worrying causes of hospitalization and death in the population. The results found are consistent with studies that point to an association between short-term variations in air pollutants and the increase in morbidity and mortality in large urban centers.

Objetivo:investigar los efectos a corto plazo de lacontaminación del aire, la variabilidad climática en la morbilidad y mortalidad respiratoria de 2005 a 2020. Método:el estudio se llevó a cabo en la ciudad de Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brasil. Se analizaron los conteos diarios de ingresos hospitalarios de 2005 a 2020 en relación con las variaciones diarias de contaminantes atmosféricos (NO2, O3) de la columna del satélite Aurea, sensor OMI. Para el análisis se utilizó la regresión de Poisson en modelos aditivos generalizados. Los modelos fueron ajustados por los efectos de tendencia temporal, estacionalidad, factores meteorológicos y autocorrelación. Resultados:hubo, en el período, una tendencia creciente en las tasas de mortalidad e ingresos hospitalarios, con aumento en la proporción de muertes por enfermedades respiratorias en relación a otras causas. Conclusión:las enfermedades respiratorias son causas preocupantesde hospitalización y muerte en la población. Las acciones de prevención y atención de estas causas, así como la profundización de la investigación etiológica, deben ser priorizadas en el actual contexto epidemiológico de salud en Brasil. Los resultados encontrados son consistentes con estudios que apuntan a una asociación entre las variaciones a corto plazo de los contaminantes atmosféricos y el aumento de la morbilidad y mortalidad en los grandes centros urbanos.

Objetivo:investigar os efeitos a curto prazo da poluição do ar, variabilidade climática na morbimortalidade respiratória entre os anos de 2005 a 2020. Método: o estudo foi realizado na cidade de Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brasil. As contagens diárias de internações hospitalares entre os anos de 2005 a 2020 foram analisadas em relação às variações diárias de poluentes atmosféricos (NO2, O3) da coluna satélite Aurea, sensor OMI. A regressão de Poisson em modelos aditivos generalizados foi utilizada para análise. Os modelos foram ajustados pelos efeitos de tendência temporal, sazonalidade, fatores meteorológicos e autocorrelação. Resultados: houve, no período, tendência crescente nas taxas de mortalidade e internações hospitalares, com aumento da proporção de óbitos por doenças respiratórias em relação a outras causas. Conclusão: as doenças respiratórias são causas preocupantes de hospitalização e morte na população. Ações de prevenção e atenção a essas causas, bem como a investigação etiológica , devem ser priorizadas no atual contexto epidemiológico da saúde no Brasil. Os resultados encontrados são consistentes com estudos que apontam para uma associação entre as variações de curto prazo dos poluentesatmosféricos e o aumento da morbimortalidade nos grandes centros urbanos.

Modeling of the air temperature using the Extreme Value Theory for selected biomes in Mato Grosso do Sul (Brazil).

This paper aims to find probabilities of extreme values of the air temperature for the Cerrado, Pantanal and Atlantic Forest biomes in Mato Grosso do Sul in Brazil. In this case a maximum likelihood estimation was employed for the probability distributions fitting the extreme monthly air temperatures for 2007-2018. Using the Extreme Value Theory approach this work estimates three probability distributions: the Generalized Distribution of Extreme Values (GEV), the Gumbel (GUM) and the Log-Normal (LN). The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the corrected Akaike criterion AIC c , the Bayesian information criterion BIC, the root of the mean square error RMSE and the determination coefficient R 2 were applied to measure the goodness-of-fit. The estimated distributions were used to calculate the probabilities of occurrence of maximum monthly air temperatures over 28-32 °C. Temperature predictions were done for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 30-, 50- and 100-year return periods. The GEV and GUM distributions are recommended to be used in the warmer months. In the coldest months, the LN distribution gave a better fit to a series of extreme air temperatures. Deforestation, combustion and extensive fires, and the related aerosol emissions contribute, alongside climate change, to the generation of extreme air temperatures in the studied biomes. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00477-022-02206-1.

Variations in the tropospheric concentration of NO2 in the central west of Brazil, MS, and their relationship with the COVID-19.

COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) started in late 2019 in Wuhan, China. Subsequently, the disease was disseminated in several cities around the world, where measures were taken to control the spread of the virus through the adoption of quarantine (social isolation and closure of commercial sectors). This article analyzed the environmental impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, regarding the variations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in the atmosphere. NO2 data from the AURA satellite, in the period before the beginning of the epidemic (2005-2019) and during the adoption of the preventive and control measures of COVID-19 in 2020, were acquired and compared. The results obtained from the analysis showed that the blockade from COVID-19, beginning in March 2020, improved air quality in the short term, but as soon as coal consumption in power plants and refineries returned to normal levels (since June 2020), due to the resumption of works, the pollution levels returned to the level of the previous years of 2020. NO2 levels showed a significant decrease, since they were mainly associated with the decrease in economic growth and transport restrictions that led to a change in energy consumption and a reduction in emissions. This study can complement the scientific community and policy makers for environmental protection and public management, not only to assess the impact of the outbreak on air quality, but also for its effectiveness as a simple alternative program of action to improve air quality.

Generalized models and the impacts of population density on COVID-19 transmission / Modelos generalizados y los impactos de la densidad de población en la transmisión del COVID-19 / Modelos generalizados e os impactos da densidade populacional na transmissão da COVID-19

Objective: to analyze epidemic curves based on mathematical models for the state of Mato Grosso do Sul and the impacts of population density on COVID-19 transmission. Method: the linear, polynomial and exponential regression model was used to make the numerical adjustment of the respective curves empirical. Result: it was found that the models used describe very well the empirical curves in which they were tested. In particular, the polynomial model is able to identify with reasonable reliability the appearance of the inflection point in the accumulated curves, which corresponds to the maximum point of the respective daily curves. The analysis indicates a weak positive correlation between infection, mortality, lethality and deaths from COVID-19 with population density, as revealed by the correlation and analysis of R2 . Conclusion: the models are very effective in describing the COVID-19 and epidemic curves in the estimation of important epidemiological parameters, such as peak case curves and daily deaths, allowing practical and efficient monitoring of the evolution of the epidemic.

Objetivo: analizar curvas epidémicas basadas en modelos matemáticos para el estado de Mato Grosso do Sul y los impactos de la densidad de población en la transmisión de COVID-19. Método: se utilizó el modelo de regresión lineal, polinomial y exponencial para hacer el ajuste numérico valor de las respectivas curvas empíricas. Resultados: se encontró que los modelos utilizados describen muy bien las curvas empíricas en las que fueron probados. En particular, el modelo polinomial es capaz de identificar con razonable fiabilidad la aparición del punto de inflexión en las curvas acumuladas, que corresponde al punto máximo de las respectivas curvas diarias. El análisis indica una correlación positiva débil entre la infección, la mortalidad, la letalidad y las muertes por COVID-19 con la densidad de población, según lo revelado por la correlación y el análisis de R2 .Conclusión: los modelos son muy efectivos para describir el COVID-19 y curvas epidémicas en la estimación de parámetros epidemiológicos importantes, como las curvas de casos máximos y las muertes diarias, lo que permite un seguimiento práctico y eficaz de la evolución de la epidemia.

Objetivo: analisar as curvas epidêmicas com base em modelos matemáticos para o estado de Mato Grosso do Sul e os impactos da densidade populacional na transmissão da COVID-19. Método: o modelo de regressão linear, polinomial e exponencial foi utilizado para fazer o ajuste numérico das respectivas curvas empíricas. Resultados: verificou-se que os modelos utilizados descrevem muito bem as curvas empíricas nas quais foram testados. Em particular, o modelo polinomial é capaz de identificar com razoável confiabilidade o aparecimento do ponto de inflexão nas curvas acumuladas, que corresponde ao ponto máximo das respectivas curvas diárias. A análise indica uma correlação positiva fraca entre infecção, mortalidade, letalidade e mortes por COVID-19 com a densidade populacional, conforme revelado pela correlação e análise de R 2. Conclusão: os modelos são muito eficazes na descrição das curvas epidêmicas de COVID19 e na estimativa de parâmetros epidemiológicos importantes, como curvas de casos de pico e óbitos diários, permitindo um monitoramento prático e eficiente da evolução da epidemia

Statistical modeling of hospital admissions for pneumonia in Campo Grande / Modelagem estatística das internações hospitalares por pneumonia em Campo Grande / Modelado estadístico de ingresos hospitalarios por neumonía en Campo Grande

Justification and Objectives: Brazil lacks consistent epidemiological data on the respiratory morbidity of children and older adults, which makes it difficult to plan and execute effective preventive and health promotion actions. The objective of this study was to analyze the adjustments of distributions (Weibull, Normal, Gamma, Logistic) of historical series of hospitalizations for respiratory diseases (total hospitalizations), from 2011 to 2015, in Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul. Methods: to determine the statistical models, four statistical indicators (coefficient of determination, mean root square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error) were performed from 2011 to 2015. Parameter estimates are obtained for the models adopted in the study, with and without a regression structure. Results: the results showed that Weibull, Gamma, Normal and Logistic distributions, applied to the series of hospitalizations for respiratory diseases in Campo Grande, were satisfactory in determining the shape and scale parameters, and the statistical indicators R2 , MAE, RSME and MAPE confirmed the data goodness-of-fit, and the graphical analysis indicated a satisfactory distribution fit. Conclusion: the analysis of monthly values indicates that Gamma is the best of the four distributions based on those selected. The regression model can be adjusted to the data and used as an alternative distribution that describes the hospitalization data considered in Campo Grande, Brazil.(AU)

Justificativa e Objetivos: o Brasil carece de dados epidemiológicos consistentes sobre a morbidade respiratória de crianças e idosos, o que dificulta o planejamento e a execução de ações efetivas de prevenção e promoção da saúde. O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar os ajustes das distribuições (Weibull, Normal, Gamma, Logística) da série histórica de internações por doenças respiratórias (total de internações), no período de 2011 a 2015, em Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul. Métodos: para determinar os modelos estatísticos, foram executados quatro indicadores estatísticos (coeficiente de determinação, erro quadrático médio, erro absoluto médio e erro percentual absoluto médio) de 2011 a 2015. As estimativas dos parâmetros são obtidas para os modelos adotados no estudo com e sem uma estrutura de regressão. Resultados: os resultados mostraram que as distribuições Weibull, Gamma, Normal e Logística, aplicadas à série de internações por doenças respiratórias em Campo Grande, foram satisfatórias na determinação dos parâmetros de forma e escala, e os indicadores estatísticos R2, MAE, RSME e MAPE confirmaram a qualidade do ajuste dos dados, e a análise gráfica apontou um ajuste satisfatório das distribuições. Conclusão: a análise dos valores mensais indica que a Gamma é a melhor das quatro distribuições baseadas nos selecionados. O modelo de regressão pode ser ajustado aos dados e ser usado como uma distribuição alternativa que descreve os dados de internação considerados em Campo Grande, Brasil.(AU)

Justificación y Objetivos: el Brasil carece de datos epidemiológicos consistentes sobre la morbilidad respiratoria de niños y ancianos, lo que dificulta la planificación y ejecución de acciones efectivas de prevención y promoción de la salud. El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar los ajustes de las distribuciones (Weibull, Normal, Gamma, Logística) de la serie histórica de hospitalizaciones por enfermedades respiratorias (hospitalizaciones totales), de 2011 a 2015, en Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul. Métodos: para la determinación de los modelos estadísticos, se realizaron cuatro indicadores estadísticos (coeficiente de determinación, raíz del error cuadrático medio, error medio absoluto y error porcentual absoluto medio) de 2011 a 2015. Se obtienen estimaciones de los parámetros para los modelos adoptados en el estudio, con y sin estructura de regresión. Resultados: los resultados mostraron que las distribuciones Weibull, Gamma, Normal y Logística, aplicadas a la serie de internaciones por enfermedades respiratorias en Campo Grande, fueron satisfactorias en la determinación de los parámetros de forma y escala, y los indicadores estadísticos R2, MAE, RSME y MAPE confirmaron la calidad de ajuste de los datos, y el análisis gráfico indicaron un ajuste satisfactorio de las distribuciones. Conclusión: el análisis de los valores mensuales indica que la Gamma es la mejor de las cuatro distribuciones en base a las seleccionadas. El modelo de regresión se puede ajustar a los datos y utilizar como una distribución alternativa que describe los datos de hospitalización considerados en Campo Grande, Brasil.(AU)

Temporal record and spatial distribution of fire foci in State of Minas Gerais, Brazil.

The objectives of this study are: (i) to evaluate the space-temporal variability of fire foci by environmental satellites, CHIRPS and remote sensing products based on applied statistics, and (ii) to identify the relational pattern between the distribution of fire foci and the environmental, meteorological, and socioeconomic variables in the mesoregions of Minas Gerais (MG) - Brazil. This study used a time series of fire foci from 1998 to 2015 via BDQueimadas. The temporal record of fire foci was evaluated by Mann-Kendall (MK), Pettitt (P), Shapiro-Wilk (SW), and Bartlett (B) tests. The spatial distribution by burned area (MCD64A1-MODIS) and the Kernel density - (radius 20 km) were estimated. The environmental variables analyzed were: rainfall (mm) and maximum temperature (°C), besides proxies to vegetation canopy: NDVI, SAVI, and EVI. PCA was applied to explain the interaction between fire foci and demographic, environmental, and geographical variables for MG. The MK test indicated a significant increasing trend in fire foci in MG. The SW and B tests were significant for non-normality and homogeneity of data. The P test pointed to abrupt changes in the 2001 and 2002 cycles (El Niño and La Niña moderated), which contributes to the annual increase and in winter and spring, which is identified by the Kernel density maps. Burned areas highlighted the northern and northwestern regions of MG, Triângulo Mineiro, Jequitinhonha, and South/Southwest MG, in the 3rd quarter (increased 17%) and the 4th quarter (increased 88%). The PCA resulted in three PCs that explained 71.49% of the total variation. The SAVI was the variable that stood out, with 11.12% of the total variation, followed by Belo Horizonte, the most representative in MG. We emphasize that the applied conceptual theoretical model defined here can act in the environmental management of fire risk. However, public policies should follow the technical-scientific guidelines in the mitigation of the resulting socioeconomic - environmental damages.

Impact of Climate Change on Human Infectious Diseases: Dengue

Abstract Climate is considered an important factor in the temporal and spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases. Dengue transmission involves many factors: although it is not yet fully understood, climate is a critical factor as it facilitates risk analysis of epidemics. This study analyzed the effect of seasonal factors and the relationship between climate variables and dengue risk in the municipality of Campo Grande, from 2008 to 2018. Generalized linear models with negative binomial and Poisson distribution were used. The most appropriate model was the one with "minimum temperature" and "precipitation", both lagged by one month, controlled by "year". In this model, a 1°C rise in the minimum temperature of one month led to an increase in dengue cases the following month, while a 10 mm increase in precipitation led to an increase in dengue cases the following month.

The relationship of climate variables in the prevalence of acute respiratory infection in children under two years old in Rondonópolis-MT, Brazil. / A relação das variáveis climáticas na prevalência de infecção respiratória aguda em crianças menores de dois anos em Rondonópolis-MT, Brasil.

It is estimated that approximately 30% of childhood diseases can be attributed to environmental factors and 40% involve children under the age of five years old, representing about 10% of world population. This study aimed to analyze the relationship of climate variables in the prevalence of acute respiratory infection (ARI) in children under two years old, in Rondonopolis-MT, from 1999 to 2014. It was used a cross-sectional study with a quantitative and a descriptive approach with meteorological teaching and research data from the database from the health information system. For statistical analysis, it adjusted the negative binomial model belonging to the class of generalized linear models, adopting a significance level of 5%, based on the statistical platform R. The average number of cases of ARI decreases at approximately by 7.9% per degree centigrade increase above the average air temperature and decrease about 1.65% per 1% increase over the average air relative humidity. Already, the rainfall not associated with these cases. It is the interdisciplinary team refocus practical actions to assist in the control and reduction of ARI significant numbers in primary health care, related climate issues in children.

Estima-se que aproximadamente 30% das doenças infantis possam ser atribuídas a fatores ambientais e 40% acometem crianças com idade inferior a cinco anos, representando cerca de 10% da população mundial. Esta pesquisa objetivou analisar a relação das variáveis climáticas na prevalência de infecção respiratória aguda (IRA) em crianças menores de dois anos em Rondonópolis-MT, de 1999 a 2014. Usou-se um estudo do tipo transversal com abordagem quantitativa e descritiva, com dados do banco de dados meteorológicos para ensino e pesquisa e do sistema de informações em saúde. Para a análise estatística, foi ajustado o modelo binomial negativo pertencente à classe dos modelos lineares generalizados, adotando-se nível de significância de 5%, com base na plataforma estatística R. Estimou-se que o número médio de casos de IRA diminui em aproximadamente 7,9% a cada grau centígrado de aumento acima da média da temperatura do ar e diminua cerca de 1,65% a cada 1% de aumento acima da média da umidade relativa do ar. Já a precipitação pluviométrica não apresentou relação com estes casos. Cabe à equipe interdisciplinar, reorientar ações práticas que auxiliem no controle e na redução dos números significativos de IRA na atenção primária à saúde, relacionados com as questões climáticas em crianças.

A relação das variáveis climáticas na prevalência de infecção respiratória aguda em crianças menores de dois anos em Rondonópolis-MT, Brasil / The relationship of climate variables in the prevalence of acute respiratory infection in children under two years old in Rondonópolis-MT, Brazil

Resumo Estima-se que aproximadamente 30% das doenças infantis possam ser atribuídas a fatores ambientais e 40% acometem crianças com idade inferior a cinco anos, representando cerca de 10% da população mundial. Esta pesquisa objetivou analisar a relação das variáveis climáticas na prevalência de infecção respiratória aguda (IRA) em crianças menores de dois anos em Rondonópolis-MT, de 1999 a 2014. Usou-se um estudo do tipo transversal com abordagem quantitativa e descritiva, com dados do banco de dados meteorológicos para ensino e pesquisa e do sistema de informações em saúde. Para a análise estatística, foi ajustado o modelo binomial negativo pertencente à classe dos modelos lineares generalizados, adotando-se nível de significância de 5%, com base na plataforma estatística R. Estimou-se que o número médio de casos de IRA diminui em aproximadamente 7,9% a cada grau centígrado de aumento acima da média da temperatura do ar e diminua cerca de 1,65% a cada 1% de aumento acima da média da umidade relativa do ar. Já a precipitação pluviométrica não apresentou relação com estes casos. Cabe à equipe interdisciplinar, reorientar ações práticas que auxiliem no controle e na redução dos números significativos de IRA na atenção primária à saúde, relacionados com as questões climáticas em crianças.

Abstract It is estimated that approximately 30% of childhood diseases can be attributed to environmental factors and 40% involve children under the age of five years old, representing about 10% of world population. This study aimed to analyze the relationship of climate variables in the prevalence of acute respiratory infection (ARI) in children under two years old, in Rondonopolis-MT, from 1999 to 2014. It was used a cross-sectional study with a quantitative and a descriptive approach with meteorological teaching and research data from the database from the health information system. For statistical analysis, it adjusted the negative binomial model belonging to the class of generalized linear models, adopting a significance level of 5%, based on the statistical platform R. The average number of cases of ARI decreases at approximately by 7.9% per degree centigrade increase above the average air temperature and decrease about 1.65% per 1% increase over the average air relative humidity. Already, the rainfall not associated with these cases. It is the interdisciplinary team refocus practical actions to assist in the control and reduction of ARI significant numbers in primary health care, related climate issues in children.

Association between climate variables, pollutants, aerosols and hospitalizations due to asthma / Association between climate variables, pollutants, aerosols and hospitalizations due to asthma

Many studies have shown that climatic and pollutant variables are directly related to the increase of hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases, mainly asthma. The aim of this study was to estimate the association between exposure to climate variables, pollutants, aerosols and hospitalizations due to asthma. This ecological study used time series with daily asthma hospitalization indicators, and concentrations of pollutants, climate data and aerosols, between January 2013 and December 2013. A generalized additive model using Poisson regression was used to estimate the relative risk with a two-day lag after exposure; the unipollutant model was adjusted by the apparent temperature, a measure defined from the temperature and relative humidity of the air, and a variable was added to control the seasonality and the day of the week. As a result, the values of relative risks (RR) for hospitalizations due to asthma were: for minimum temperature RR= 0.8985; maximum humidity RR= 0.9819; wind speed RR= 0.9419; rain RR= 0.9834; ozone RR= 0.9735; aerosols (AOT) RR= 1.0078; clearness index (Kt) RR= 0.0492 and carbon monoxide RR= 1.0865 for a two-day lag. After considering the aforementioned factors, we found the values of B coefficients. Exposure to climatic variables, pollutants, aerosols and clearness index was associated with hospitalizations due to asthma, and provided subsidies for the implementation of preventive measures to decrease these outcomes

Muitos estudos vêm demonstrando que variáveis climáticas e poluentes tem uma relação direta no aumento de internações por doenças respiratórias, principalmente por asma. O objetivo deste estudo foi estimar a associação entre exposição às variáveis climáticas, poluentes, aerossóis nas internações por asma. O presente estudo ecológico utilizou séries temporais com indicadores diários de internação por asma, e concentrações de poluentes, dados de clima e aerossóis, entre janeiro de 2013 e dezembro de 2013. Um modelo aditivo generalizado utilizando regressão de Poisson foi usado para estimar o risco relativo, com defasagem de dois dias após a exposição; o modelo unipoluente foi ajustado pela temperatura aparente, medida definida a partir da temperatura e umidade relativa do ar, foi adicionada uma variável para controlar a sazonalidade e o dia da semana. Como resultados, os valores dos riscos relativos para internações por asma foram para Temperatura mínima: RR=0,8985; umidade máxima RR=0,9819; velocidade dos ventos RR=0,9419; precipitação RR= 0,9834; ozônio RR=0,9735; aerossóis (AOT; RR=1,0078; índice de claridade (Kt) RR=0,0492 e monóxido de carbono RR=1,0865 para defasagem temporal de dois dias. Após considerar os fatores mencionados, encontramos os valores dos coeficientes B's. A exposição às variáveis climáticas, poluentes, aerossóis e índice de claridade esteve associada às internações por asma, e forneceu subsídios para implantação de medidas preventivas para diminuírem esses desfechos

Stretching of BDT-gold molecular junctions: thiol or thiolate termination?

It is often assumed that the hydrogen atoms in the thiol groups of a benzene-1,4-dithiol dissociate when Au-benzene-1,4-dithiol-Au junctions are formed. We demonstrate, by stability and transport property calculations, that this assumption cannot be made. We show that the dissociative adsorption of methanethiol and benzene-1,4-dithiol molecules on a flat Au(111) surface is energetically unfavorable and that the activation barrier for this reaction is as high as 1 eV. For the molecule in the junction, our results show, for all electrode geometries studied, that the thiol junctions are energetically more stable than their thiolate counterparts. Due to the fact that density functional theory (DFT) within the local density approximation (LDA) underestimates the energy difference between the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital and the highest occupied molecular orbital by several electron-volts, and that it does not capture the renormalization of the energy levels due to the image charge effect, the conductance of the Au-benzene-1,4-dithiol-Au junctions is overestimated. After taking into account corrections due to image charge effects by means of constrained-DFT calculations and electrostatic classical models, we apply a scissor operator to correct the DFT energy level positions, and calculate the transport properties of the thiol and thiolate molecular junctions as a function of the electrode separation. For the thiol junctions, we show that the conductance decreases as the electrode separation increases, whereas the opposite trend is found for the thiolate junctions. Both behaviors have been observed in experiments, therefore pointing to the possible coexistence of both thiol and thiolate junctions. Moreover, the corrected conductance values, for both thiol and thiolate, are up to two orders of magnitude smaller than those calculated with DFT-LDA. This brings the theoretical results in quantitatively good agreement with experimental data.

Hospitalizações por infecção respiratória associada a fatores ambientais / Hospitalizations for respiratory infections associated with environmental factors / Ingresos por infección respiratoria asociada a factores ambientales

Objetivo: Avaliar a relação entre variáveis meteorológicas e doenças respiratórias por faixa etária. Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo ecológico de séries temporais para o período compreendido entre 2008 e 2011. Primeiramente, as internações foram analisadas por grupo de faixa etária e, em seguida, relacionadas com informações climáticas, temperatura, precipitação, umidade relativa do ar e velocidade dos ventos, através da climatologia dinâmica e de parâmetros estatísticos, utilizando análise de regressão múltipla, teste qui-quadrado e distribuição normal. Resultados: Os resultados mostraram 12.067 registros de internações por doenças respiratórias e por faixa etária. As maiores médias de internação ocorreram na faixa etária de 1 a 4 anos, com média de 42,09%, (5.079) e acima de 60 anos, com média de 27,14% (3.274) para o período de estudo, sendo as pneumonias predominantes, com 81,0% (9.774) das internações. Verificou-se menor número de internações em janeiro e maior, em junho e julho. Conclusão: Com base nas investigações realizadas, observou-se correlação significativa entre os parâmetros climáticos e as internações por doenças respiratórias

Objective: To evaluate the relationship between the meteorological variables and respiratory diseases by age. Methods: This is an ecological time-series study, for the period comprised between 2008 and 2011. First, admissions were analyzed by age group and then related to climate information: temperature, precipitation, relative air humidity, and wind speed, through dynamic climatology and statistical parameters using multiple regression analysis, chi-square test and normal distribution. Results: The results showed 12,067 records of hospital admissions for respiratory diseases according to the age group. The highest average number of hospitalizations was found in the age range from 1 to 4 years, with a mean of 42.09% (5079), and over 60 years, with a mean of 27.14% (3274) for the study period. The highest prevalence was due to pneumonia, accounting for 81.0% (9,774) of admissions. The number of hospitalizations was lower in January and higher in June and July. Conclusion: Based on the investigations carried out, a significant correlation was observed between climate parameters and hospitalization for respiratory diseases.

Objetivo: Evaluar la relación entre variables meteorológicas y enfermedades respiratórias por franja de edad. Métodos: Se trata de un estudio ecológico de series temporales en el período entre 2008 y 2011. En primer lugar, los ingresos fueron analizados por franja de edad y, en seguida, relacionados con las informaciones climáticas, temperatura, precipitación, humidad relativa del aire y la velocidad de los vientos a través de la climatología dinâmica y parámetros estadísticos utilizándose del análisis de regresión múltiple, prueba del Chicuadrado y distribución normal. Resultados: Los resultados señalaron 12.067 registros deingresos por enfermedades respiratorias y franja de edad. Las mayores medias de ingreso se dieron en la franja de edad de 1 a 4 años con media del 42,09%, (5.079) y por encima de los 60 años con media del 27,14% (3.274) en el período del estudio, siendo las neumonías las más predominantes en el 81,0% (9.774) de los ingresos. Se verifico menos ingresos en enero y más en junio y julio. Conclusión: Basado en las investigaciones realizadas, se observó correlación significante entre los parámetros climáticos y los ingresos por enfermedades respiratorias.

Atomistic simulations of highly conductive molecular transport junctions under realistic conditions.

We report state-of-the-art atomistic simulations combined with high-fidelity conductance calculations to probe structure-conductance relationships in Au-benzenedithiolate (BDT)-Au junctions under elongation. Our results demonstrate that large increases in conductance are associated with the formation of monatomic chains (MACs) of Au atoms directly connected to BDT. An analysis of the electronic structure of the simulated junctions reveals that enhancement in the s-like states in Au MACs causes the increases in conductance. Other structures also result in increased conductance but are too short-lived to be detected in experiment, while MACs remain stable for long simulation times. Examinations of thermally evolved junctions with and without MACs show negligible overlap between conductance histograms, indicating that the increase in conductance is related to this unique structural change and not thermal fluctuation. These results, which provide an excellent explanation for a recently observed anomalous experimental result [Bruot et al., Nat. Nanotechnol., 2012, 7, 35-40], should aid in the development of mechanically responsive molecular electronic devices.

Structural Origins of Conductance Fluctuations in Gold-Thiolate Molecular Transport Junctions.

We report detailed atomistic simulations combined with high-fidelity conductance calculations to probe the structural origins of conductance fluctuations in thermally evolving Au-benzene-1,4-dithiolate-Au junctions. We compare the behavior of structurally ideal junctions (where the electrodes are modeled as flat surfaces) to structurally realistic, experimentally representative junctions resulting from break-junction simulations. The enhanced mobility of metal atoms in structurally realistic junctions results in significant changes to the magnitude and origin of the conductance fluctuations. Fluctuations are larger by a factor of 2-3 in realistic junctions compared to ideal junctions. Moreover, in junctions with highly deformed electrodes, the conductance fluctuations arise primarily from changes in the Au geometry, in contrast to results for junctions with nondeformed electrodes, where the conductance fluctuations are dominated by changes in the molecule geometry. These results provide important guidance to experimentalists developing strategies to control molecular conductance, and also to theoreticians invoking simplified structural models of junctions to predict their behavior.

Potenciais impactos da variabilidade climática sobre a morbidade respiratória em crianças, lactentes e adultos / Potential impacts of climate variability on respiratory morbidity in children, infants, and adults

OBJETIVO: Estudar a relação existente entre a o número de internações por doenças do aparelho respiratório em lactentes, crianças e adultos e as variações meteorológicas na cidade de Campo Grande (MS). MÉTODOS Foram utilizados dados diários de internações por doenças respiratórias, precipitação, temperatura do ar, umidade e velocidade dos ventos entre 2004 e 2008. Foram calculados os índices de conforto térmico humano, temperatura efetiva e temperatura efetiva com velocidade do vento com base nas variáveis meteorológicas. Foram realizados modelos lineares generalizados utilizando o modelo múltiplo de regressão de Poisson para predizer as internações por doenças respiratórias. RESULTADOS: Foram observados valores relativamente elevados dos coeficientes de correlação entre as variáveis estudadas e internações por pneumonia em crianças (R² = 68,4%), lactentes (R² = 71,8%) e adultos (R² = 81,8%). CONCLUSÕES: Os resultados aqui apresentados indicam em termos quantitativos o risco para um aumento no número de hospitalizações de crianças, lactentes e adultos de acordo com o aumento ou a diminuição das temperaturas, umidade, precipitação, velocidade dos ventos e índice de conforto térmico na cidade de Campo Grande.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether climate variability influences the number of hospitalizations for respiratory diseases in infants, children, and adults in the city of Campo Grande, Brazil. METHODS: We used daily data on admissions for respiratory diseases, precipitation, air temperature, humidity, and wind speed for the 2004-2008 period. We calculated the thermal comfort index, effective temperature, and effective temperature with wind speed (wind-chill or heat index) using the meteorological data obtained. Generalized linear models, with Poisson multiple regression, were used in order to predict hospitalizations for respiratory disease. RESULTS: The variables studied were (collectively) found to show relatively high correlation coefficients in relation to hospital admission for pneumonia in children (R² = 68.4%), infants (R² = 71.8%), and adults (R² = 81.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate a quantitative risk for an increase in the number of hospitalizations of children, infants, and adults, according to the increase or decrease in temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed, and thermal comfort index in the city under study.

Assessment of physical workload in boiler operations.

The use of boiler wood-fired is fairly common equipment utilized in steam generation for energy production in small industries. The boiler activities are considered dangerous and heavy, mainly due to risks of explosions and the lack of mechanization of the process. This study assessed the burden of physical labor that operators of boilers are subjected during the workday. Assessment of these conditions was carried out through quantitative and qualitative measurements. A heart rate monitor, a wet-bulb globe thermometer (WBGT), a tape-measure and a digital infrared camera were the instruments used to collect the quantitative data. The Nordic Questionnaire and the Painful Areas Diagram were used to relate the health problems of the boiler operator with activity. With study, was concluded that the boiler activity may cause pains in the body of intensity different, muscle fatigue and diseases due to excessive weight and the exposure to heat. The research contributed to improve the boiler operator's workplace and working conditions.

Evaluation of thermal overload in boiler operators.

The Brazilians educational institutions need a large energy demand for the operation of laundries, restaurants and accommodation of students. Much of that energy comes from steam generated in boilers with wood fuel. The laboral activity in boiler may present problems for the operator's health due to exposure to excessive heat, and its operation has a high degree of risk. This paper describes an analysis made the conditions of thermal environment in the operation of a B category boiler, located at a Higher Education Institution, located in the Zona da Mata Mineira The equipments used to collect data were Meter WBGT of the Heat Index; Meter of Wet Bulb Index and Globe Thermometer (WBGT); Politeste Instruments, an anemometer and an Infrared Thermometer. By the application of questionnaires, the second phase consisted of collecting data on environmental factors (temperature natural environment, globe temperature, relative humidity and air velocity). The study concluded that during the period evaluated, the activity had thermal overload.